BUSMBA 760 : Making Evidence-based Decisions under Uncertainty

Business and Economics

2022 Quarter Four (1228) (15 POINTS)

Course Prescription

Develops highly specialised knowledge about decision making within organisations. Requires the critical synthesis and appraisal of different types of expertise and evidence in informing management practice.

Course Overview

Managerial decisions often need to be made under uncertainty of outcomes or under uncertainty of information. In making these decisions managers should be aware of their biases; attitudes towards risks and competitive environment. More importantly, managers require a set of tools for arriving at well-structured decisions, rather than relying solely on intuition (or gut feeling).
In this course we will be looking at several tools that can help you in better structuring the decision-making process under uncertainty. In particular we will be looking at probabilistic decision-making tools like formulating expectations, decision trees, real options, value of information and monte carlo simulations. We will also familiarize ourselves with common biases and risk attitudes that influence decisions. Moreover, we will touch on game theoretic concepts that can be used in structuring decisions when faced with uncertain information about competition that is often characterized in bidding or negotiation like settings. Finally, we will look at decision making for extreme events and how to build resilience.

Course Requirements

Prerequisite: 90 points from BUSMBA 701-753

Capabilities Developed in this Course

Capability 1: Disciplinary Knowledge and Practice
Capability 2: Critical Thinking
Capability 3: Solution Seeking
Capability 4: Communication and Engagement
Capability 5: Independence and Integrity

Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course, students will be able to:
  1. Explain key traits of uncertainty; value of information; alternative options and apply critical thinking to comment on the consequences of each (Capability 1 and 2)
  2. Independently select and justify the choice of appropriate tools for structuring decisions under uncertainty (Capability 1, 2, 3 and 5.1)
  3. Detect common biases and risk attitudes that influence decision-making (Capability 1 and 2)
  4. Analyse complex business decisions and provide solutions to issues through the use of simulation (Capability 2, 3 and 4.2)
  5. Contribute to a group to develop recommendations for scenarios involving uncertainty and communicate these effectively in both oral and verbal formats (Capability 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3)

Assessments

Assessment Type Percentage Classification
Assignment (Group) 30% Group Coursework
Test 40% Individual Test
Assignment (Individual) 30% Individual Coursework
Assessment Type Learning Outcome Addressed
1 2 3 4 5
Assignment (Group)
Test
Assignment (Individual)

Workload Expectations

This course is a standard 15 point course and students are expected to spend 10 hours per week involved in each 15 point course that they are enrolled in.

For this course, you can expect weekly 2.5 hours of lectures, a 1.5 hour workshop (discussion), 2 hours of reading and thinking about the content and 4 hours of work on assignments.

Delivery Mode

Campus Experience

Attendance is required at scheduled activities.
The activities for the course are scheduled as block delivery.

Learning Resources

Course materials are made available in a learning and collaboration tool called Canvas which also includes reading lists and lecture recordings (where available).

Please remember that the recording of any class on a personal device requires the permission of the instructor.

All relevant course material will be contained in the course notes and lectures.
There are no “required” books for this course. 
Some reference books are mentioned below in case you would like to read beyond what is covered in lectures. 
Reference Books
1. Brown. “Rational choice and judgement --- Decision Analysis for the Decider.” The electronic version of this book is available on Canvas and therefore it is the most easily accessible. discussed during lectures.
2. Bertsimas and Freund. “Data, model and Decisions: The fundamentals of Management Science”. This is a more quantitative book. Hard copies available in the library
3. Fudenberg and Tirole. “Game Theory”. The first chapter gives a good overview of game theory. A technical book.

Student Feedback

At the end of every semester students will be invited to give feedback on the course and teaching through a tool called SET or Qualtrics. The lecturers and course co-ordinators will consider all feedback and respond with summaries and actions.

Your feedback helps teachers to improve the course and its delivery for future students.

Class Representatives in each class can take feedback to the department and faculty staff-student consultative committees.

No changes

Academic Integrity

The University of Auckland will not tolerate cheating, or assisting others to cheat, and views cheating in coursework as a serious academic offence. The work that a student submits for grading must be the student's own work, reflecting their learning. Where work from other sources is used, it must be properly acknowledged and referenced. This requirement also applies to sources on the internet. A student's assessed work may be reviewed against online source material using computerised detection mechanisms.

Class Representatives

Class representatives are students tasked with representing student issues to departments, faculties, and the wider university. If you have a complaint about this course, please contact your class rep who will know how to raise it in the right channels. See your departmental noticeboard for contact details for your class reps.

Inclusive Learning

All students are asked to discuss any impairment related requirements privately, face to face and/or in written form with the course coordinator, lecturer or tutor.

Student Disability Services also provides support for students with a wide range of impairments, both visible and invisible, to succeed and excel at the University. For more information and contact details, please visit the Student Disability Services’ website http://disability.auckland.ac.nz

Special Circumstances

If your ability to complete assessed coursework is affected by illness or other personal circumstances outside of your control, contact a member of teaching staff as soon as possible before the assessment is due.

If your personal circumstances significantly affect your performance, or preparation, for an exam or eligible written test, refer to the University’s aegrotat or compassionate consideration page https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/students/academic-information/exams-and-final-results/during-exams/aegrotat-and-compassionate-consideration.html.

This should be done as soon as possible and no later than seven days after the affected test or exam date.

Learning Continuity

In the event of an unexpected disruption, we undertake to maintain the continuity and standard of teaching and learning in all your courses throughout the year. If there are unexpected disruptions the University has contingency plans to ensure that access to your course continues and course assessment continues to meet the principles of the University’s assessment policy. Some adjustments may need to be made in emergencies. You will be kept fully informed by your course co-ordinator/director, and if disruption occurs you should refer to the university website for information about how to proceed.

Student Charter and Responsibilities

The Student Charter assumes and acknowledges that students are active participants in the learning process and that they have responsibilities to the institution and the international community of scholars. The University expects that students will act at all times in a way that demonstrates respect for the rights of other students and staff so that the learning environment is both safe and productive. For further information visit Student Charter https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/students/forms-policies-and-guidelines/student-policies-and-guidelines/student-charter.html.

Disclaimer

Elements of this outline may be subject to change. The latest information about the course will be available for enrolled students in Canvas.

In this course students may be asked to submit coursework assessments digitally. The University reserves the right to conduct scheduled tests and examinations for this course online or through the use of computers or other electronic devices. Where tests or examinations are conducted online remote invigilation arrangements may be used. In exceptional circumstances changes to elements of this course may be necessary at short notice. Students enrolled in this course will be informed of any such changes and the reasons for them, as soon as possible, through Canvas.

Published on 06/08/2022 05:27 p.m.